The Mortgage Ledger

Rent vs. buy · California

In California, renting stays cheaper for at least 10 years

Over a 10-year horizon these numbers favour renting: the upfront cost of buying, plus what the down payment could earn invested, isn't recovered within the period. Staying longer, a lower rate, or faster price growth would change that.

Yr 1Yr 10
Buying RentingLower = cheaper. Cumulative net cost after resale equity.

The scenario

Home price
$765,000
Monthly rent comparedestimated from local price-to-rent
$3,188
Down payment
20%
Mortgage rate
6.65% benchmark
Monthly principal & interest
$3,929
Upfront cash to buy
$175,950
Property tax
0.75% of value / yr
Home insurance
$1,600 / yr

What this assumes — and what it leaves out

  • Rent rises 3% a year; the home appreciates 3% a year. Both are assumptions, not forecasts — neither is guaranteed, and prices can fall.
  • The cash a buyer spends up front (down payment plus 3% closing costs) is credited to the renting side as an investment earning 5% a year. Without that, buying would look better than it is.
  • Ownership includes 1% of value a year in maintenance, property tax, insurance. Selling costs of 6% are deducted from the equity you'd walk away with.
  • Renting includes $240/yr renter's insurance. Non-cash factors grow at 2.5% a year.
  • Not modelled: tax deductions, HOA or condo fees, moving costs, rent control, a variable mortgage rate at renewal, or the value of flexibility. This is a cost comparison, not financial advice.

Property tax and the survey-average insurance premium for California come from the same verified data as the rest of The Mortgage Ledger. The mortgage rate shown is a labelled benchmark for comparison, not a quote. Estimates for guidance only.